Obama Adminsitration’s Political Posturing About Unemployment

This post really strikes at two issues that frustrate me. One, the Obama economic policy of spend-spend-spend (which will ultimately be followed by tax-tax-tax). Two, the pitiful excuse for national media coverage in this country, particularly on business and economic issues.

The Obama administration is reporting that they have “saved or created”150,000 American jobs and that they are ramping up the stimulus to “save or create” an additional 600,00 jobs. The problem with this claim is that its total political drivel–you can’t measure “jobs saved.” The Department of Labor doesn’t do it, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, neither does any other legitimate organization that collects economic data. Any attempt to make that claim is bogus. Is it possible to estimate, from a theoretical perspective, the multiplier effect of stimulus spending? Yes, but not with any real accuracy or focus. It’s like a 3rd baseman trying to extrapolate how many runs  he prevented from scoring based on the number of balls he fields. Fielding a hit ball consistently makes him a solid 3rd baseman, but it doesn’t mean every ball is the equivalent of preventing a run.

We know that some jobs have been created. The government is pumping an enormous amount of money into every thing from overhauling our national laboratories, to NASA, to community organizations. In true big-government fashion, they can hire people to dig holes (which this deficit is certainly doing) and hire people to fill the hole just dug (if only the deficit was that easy to fill). But is that really having an affect?

In reality, this “saved and created” is just a bait-and-switch political maneuver. When we look at the aggregate data, we know that unemployment is at 9.4% as of May (see here). This is the highest rate since the early 1980′s and is an almost 2% increase since January (when Obama took office). You can put all the lipstick you want on a pig, but it’s still a big… and this country is still experiencing high unemployment.

Think about this the next time you vote… Hopefully we don’t find ourselves so over-leveraged with debt that we’re not in the position to finance the necessary responsibilities of government (a-hem… national security).

Hat tip to Prof Greg Mankiw at Harvard for his “Create or Save” thoughts, and to William McGurn on his “The Media Fall for Phony ‘Jobs’ Claim” at WSJ.

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